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LinkedIn Top Voice. Economic analyst, survey maven, and trusted resource for Bankrate, Red Ventures, and beyond. Former president of two associations of journalists, The National Press Club and SABEW.
Why can't we have nice things, like a strong job market, and falling inflation? The latest snapshot of the job market suggests that we can. The March employment report includes an optimal mix of strong hiring, falling unemployment, rising wages, and increased labor force participation. The Labor Department says hiring sprung forward last month with 303,000 jobs added, more than forecast. This matches the level last seen in May of last year. The last time payroll gains were more robust was in January 2023. The nation’s unemployment rate was 3.8%, continuing the more than two-year-long streak below 4%, the longest since the 1960s. Another positive: More people were working and looking for work, taking the labor force participation rate up to 62.7%. Wage growth remains above the recent pace of inflation. Average hourly earnings were up 4.1% from a year ago, marking a slight deceleration, which suggests the job market is not a key source of inflation overall. A big question for the economy remains the mix of inflation and monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials can look at recent jobs data and remain confident that they’re satisfying the maximum employment component of their dual mandate. The other part of that mandate is stable prices. At issue, is when they begin to cut interest rates. As of this writing, investors are giving a very slight edge to a June rate cut, suggesting that there will be no change at the May meeting. As they look for information that inflation is edging closer to their 2% target, FOMC officials will have additional data soon with the forthcoming CPI and PPI readings, covering prices at the retail and wholesale levels. What about the outlook? Economists surveyed by Bankrate look for slower hiring over the next year and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Collectively, the economists put the odds of a recession over the next 12 months at 33% which matches the lowest level of risk since early 2022. Ultimately, recessions are inevitable in the long term. Their timing, duration, and severity are hugely difficult to predict. Here's more on our Bankrate survey written by my colleague Sarah Foster: https://lnkd.in/ekC4SFsA